Continuing to crush....

hands Played: 6844
Winrate: 18.66 bb/100
Winnings: $127.68
Left to $500 goal: $139.79

I've found that I play optimally on 6 tables for about 1.5 hours. Then my play starts to suffer a bit (at least mentally). Will use this knowledge and start taking some breaks around that time instead of playing the full 2 hours. I'm getting in between 400-450 hands per hour it seems while only 5 tabling (5 table when I watch/listen to CR videos).

Anyways, just thought I'd throw in a quick update. Here's an interesting hand by the way:

Stage #1167304957: Holdem No Limit $0.10 - 2008-12-23 17:33:02 (ET)
Table: ICELAND HWY (Real Money) Seat #5 is the dealer
Seat 5 - T0KAREV ($13.81 in chips)
Seat 1 - JOSEMADRE ($10.51 in chips)
Seat 2 - DUBSPOKE ($24.60 in chips)
Seat 3 - TEXICITYS ($20 in chips)
Seat 4 - VIKES999 ($4.26 in chips) <---somewhat of a thinking player but playing too many hands too far; I've got a good handle on this table and its dynamics
JOSEMADRE - Posts small blind $0.05
DUBSPOKE - Posts big blind $0.10
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to DUBSPOKE [Jh Kh]
TEXICITYS - Folds
VIKES999 - Calls $0.10
T0KAREV - Folds
JOSEMADRE - Calls $0.05
DUBSPOKE - Raises $0.30 to $0.40
VIKES999 - Calls $0.30
JOSEMADRE - Folds
*** FLOP *** [Qd Ks 10d]
DUBSPOKE - Bets $0.50
VIKES999 - Calls $0.50
*** TURN *** [Qd Ks 10d] [Qc] <---interesting turn
DUBSPOKE - Checks
VIKES999 - Bets $0.90 <-----timed down FOREVER before making bet
DUBSPOKE - Calls $0.90 <-----think he is trying to bluff a Queen quite frankly
*** RIVER *** [Qd Ks 10d Qc] [2h]
DUBSPOKE - Checks
VIKES999 - All-In $2.46 <-----I don't believe him. 100% confident in my read that he doesn't have a Q. Put him on a missed flush draw.
DUBSPOKE - Calls $2.46
*** SHOW DOWN ***
VIKES999 - Shows [9c 9s] (Two Pair, queens and nines) <----I'm wrong and right, didn't have a Q but wasn't a missed Flush Draw.
DUBSPOKE - Shows [Jh Kh] (Two Pair, kings and queens)
DUBSPOKE Collects $8.19 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total Pot($8.62) | Rake ($0.43)
Board [Qd Ks 10d Qc 2h]
Seat 1: JOSEMADRE (small blind) Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 2: DUBSPOKE (big blind) won Total ($8.19) HI:($8.19) with Two Pair, kings and queens [Jh Kh - B:Ks,P:Kh,B:Qd,B:Qc,P:Jh]
Seat 3: TEXICITYS Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 4: VIKES999 HI:lost with Two Pair, queens and nines [9c 9s - B:Qd,B:Qc,P:9s,P:9c,B:Ks]
Seat 5: T0KAREV (dealer) Folded on the POCKET CARDS

I'm making these type of plays more often with greater accuracy as to when to fold and when to call. Poker is a lot more fun when you are relaxed and confident.

Dropping Hr Target From PBP

PBP = Poker Business Plan

Anyways, dropping the hour requirement from my PBP. Reason = Hours logged don't matter. It's all about the number of hands and BB/100.

I've also increased the number of tables played at once during a serious session up to 6. I've found that I can handle that number of tables EASILY at 10NL without much, if any, effect on my winrate.

I'm still cruising by the way.

Hands logged = 5739
WinRate = 17.97 bb/100

Plan Check-In: Day 3

Hours Played: 11.3 (TARGET 6hrs, +5.3)
Hands Played: 3296 or 291.7 per hour. (TARGET hands [6x400 = 2400], +896)
Total Winnings: $64.24 (TARGET 6hrs * $4 per hour = $24, +$40.24)
Win Rate: 19.49 bb/100 (TARGET 10bb/100 = +9.49 bb/100)
Bankroll: $283.60 (Target $200 + (3days * $8 per day) = $224, + $59.60)

The only stat out of whack is the hands per hour & total hours played. I had a 3 hour session of 1 tabling because I was doing some work while playing. That session was a whopping win of $2.59 (AQ < 82 was a 116bbs loss that I suffered in that session otherwise would have been very nice.)

So I'm cruising right along. FYI - Rakeback will be added to my bankroll in $25 increments and as earned. That will help speed up the process for me as well.

I have an Excel spreadsheet I'm using to track my progress as well.

Now for my biggest wins and losses:

A cooler turned massive suckout:



My bets may be too small, but I think Villian is calling me down no matter what because that is what fish do:

My Poker Business Plan: A Crucial Exercise

Relevant to the previous post, I've decided to write a plan for how I am going to achieve my goals in poker. Today I am re-dedicating myself to mastering this game and moving up the limits so that some day I can start cashing out from my account instead of just constantly trying to build my account.

I have a series of goals now for 2009.

1) To have a $1k month
2) To have a $1k week.
3) To have a $1k day.
4) To have a $1k pot (win).

Now how am I going to get there. This is difficult part. Let's do some math.

I'm currently playing 10NL. I have a long-term winrate at this limit of approx 10bb/100. 10BB = $1 for every 100 hands.

I'm starting with a $200 base roll. (I have more but am allowing the excess for emergency funding in case of bad downswings as well as some fun money for tourney's, SNGs, HU, etc to mix it up when needed). In order to START 25NL I am going to require a minimum of 20 buy-ins.

$25 x 20 Buy-ins = $500 bankroll

So if I can maintain a pace of 10BB/100 at 10NL (which I feel is somewhat easily achievable) then how many hands do I need to put in?

Goal BR ($500) - Current BR ($200) = $300 profit.

100 hands = $1 so 100 x $300 = 30,000 hands

How long does it take to play 30k hands?

Avg table on AP is between 80-120+ hands per hour so on average lets use 100 hands per hour. I will be 4 tabling on average. 100 x 4 = 400 hands per hour.

30,000/400 = 75 hrs. I can play approx 2 hours per day (probably more but for this exercise we will say 2).

75/2 = 37.5 days.

That's a bit more than I expected to be honest. I believe I can play a bit more and will increase the number of tables as I fix some leaks/gain confidence. I believe I can do it in 30 days.

By January 31st, I want to have surpassed a $500 bankroll.

--------------------------

Now let's look at what it takes to hit 50NL. Going to adjust Buy-in requirement to 20 BIs to start taking shots.

My starting BR for 25NL is $500. Requirement for 50NL x 20 BI = $1000

BB/100 winrate of 6. 6 x .25 = $1.50 per 100 hands.

400 hands per hour (4 tables @ 100 hands per hour per table) * $1.50 = $6 per hour.

$500 profit needed. $500/6 = 83.3 hours / 2 hours per day = 42 days.

So I should be able to start taking shots around March 15th.

I think this is achievable.

------------------------------------

100NL means a bankroll of $2000. A winrate of 4bb/100 at 100NL is $4 per 100 hands.

4 tables at 100 hands per hour * $4 = $16 per hour. $1000 profit needed / 16 per hour = 62.5 hours of play / 2 hrs per day = 31.25 days. So technically should start taking shots around April 15th.

Also - goal #1 would be accomplished if I'm able to achieve this.

I will probably take some cash outs before then so I will say June 1st is my goal to be playing 100NL.

I do think that is achievable.

---------------------------

Doing that exercise really helped put things in perspective for me. From a mental standpoint, having a poker business plan will allow me to have more of a concrete way to judge how far along I am to reaching my goals. More on this in my next post....

I'd like to hear your comments on this plan. Realistic? Unrealistic? Pros/Cons? Tweaks to be made? Did I get the math right?

Good luck at the felt,

DubsPoke

(FYI - Coincidentally, I just had one of my better 4tabling 10NL sessions in a while, I will explain why next post as well.)