I have a series of goals now for 2009.
1) To have a $1k month
2) To have a $1k week.
3) To have a $1k day.
4) To have a $1k pot (win).
Now how am I going to get there. This is difficult part. Let's do some math.
I'm currently playing 10NL. I have a long-term winrate at this limit of approx 10bb/100. 10BB = $1 for every 100 hands.
I'm starting with a $200 base roll. (I have more but am allowing the excess for emergency funding in case of bad downswings as well as some fun money for tourney's, SNGs, HU, etc to mix it up when needed). In order to START 25NL I am going to require a minimum of 20 buy-ins.
$25 x 20 Buy-ins = $500 bankroll
So if I can maintain a pace of 10BB/100 at 10NL (which I feel is somewhat easily achievable) then how many hands do I need to put in?
Goal BR ($500) - Current BR ($200) = $300 profit.
100 hands = $1 so 100 x $300 = 30,000 hands
How long does it take to play 30k hands?
Avg table on AP is between 80-120+ hands per hour so on average lets use 100 hands per hour. I will be 4 tabling on average. 100 x 4 = 400 hands per hour.
30,000/400 = 75 hrs. I can play approx 2 hours per day (probably more but for this exercise we will say 2).
75/2 = 37.5 days.
That's a bit more than I expected to be honest. I believe I can play a bit more and will increase the number of tables as I fix some leaks/gain confidence. I believe I can do it in 30 days.
By January 31st, I want to have surpassed a $500 bankroll.
Now let's look at what it takes to hit 50NL. Going to adjust Buy-in requirement to 20 BIs to start taking shots.
My starting BR for 25NL is $500. Requirement for 50NL x 20 BI = $1000
BB/100 winrate of 6. 6 x .25 = $1.50 per 100 hands.
400 hands per hour (4 tables @ 100 hands per hour per table) * $1.50 = $6 per hour.
$500 profit needed. $500/6 = 83.3 hours / 2 hours per day = 42 days.
So I should be able to start taking shots around March 15th.
I think this is achievable.
100NL means a bankroll of $2000. A winrate of 4bb/100 at 100NL is $4 per 100 hands.
4 tables at 100 hands per hour * $4 = $16 per hour. $1000 profit needed / 16 per hour = 62.5 hours of play / 2 hrs per day = 31.25 days. So technically should start taking shots around April 15th.
Also - goal #1 would be accomplished if I'm able to achieve this.
I will probably take some cash outs before then so I will say June 1st is my goal to be playing 100NL.
I do think that is achievable.
Doing that exercise really helped put things in perspective for me. From a mental standpoint, having a poker business plan will allow me to have more of a concrete way to judge how far along I am to reaching my goals. More on this in my next post....
I'd like to hear your comments on this plan. Realistic? Unrealistic? Pros/Cons? Tweaks to be made? Did I get the math right?
Good luck at the felt,
(FYI - Coincidentally, I just had one of my better 4tabling 10NL sessions in a while, I will explain why next post as well.)